Danger Zone: what will happen to the Turkish troops in Syria - WritenAreGiven

Danger Zone: what will happen to the Turkish troops in Syria

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Turkish troops entered Syria. Ankara plans to cleanse the Turkish-Syrian border and surrounding territories from terrorists and Kurdish militia units. Danger Zone: what will happen to the Turkish troops in Syria





Turkish troops entered Syria. Ankara plans to cleanse the Turkish-Syrian border and surrounding territories from terrorists and Kurdish militia units, which has already announced mobilization. The military observer of Gazeta.ru, Mikhail Khodarenok, dealt with the details of the Turkish Armed Forces operation.

Turkish army units advanced to the northeast of Syria, ousting Kurdish militias from the area, TASS reported. The administration of the self-proclaimed Democratic Federation of Northern Syria announced mobilization and called for resistance to the Turkish army, regardless of nationality.


The main goal of the operation announced by Turkey under the name "Source of Peace" is to push the Kurdish Popular Self-Defense Forces (YPG), which Ankara considers terrorists, away from its borders.
Turkish authorities expect to create a 32-kilometre "security zone" in the territory of northeast Syria along its borders, free from the Kurdish militia.
In this regard, it is of interest to analyze the positions of all interested parties and their possible actions in the Turkish-Kurdish conflict.
First, consider the position of Russia. As for Moscow, the Kremlin is not interested in any increase in its military activity in Syria. The Russian side has already given the usual theses in such cases on respect for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Syrian Arab Republic. In official statements, the formation of the Constitutional Committee in Syria, as well as its upcoming first meeting, were not ignored. In addition, Moscow does not want to complicate relations with Ankara. On the contrary, at present, numerous prerequisites are being created for deepening cooperation, and in very promising areas, including large-scale military-technical cooperation.
As for the ongoing operation by the Turkish Armed Forces, the necessary information is exchanged between the relevant military authorities from the Russian and Turkish sides. This is done primarily in order to prevent unnecessary incidents in this situation.
Damascus will have to limit itself to purely political allegations of a violation of international law, and nothing more.
I must say, the combat effectiveness of the Syrian armed forces has recently risen somewhat. During the long-term civil war and confrontation with terrorist groups, the Syrian army gained some combat experience.
However, in their composition and equipment, the Syrian armed forces, even in the very first approximation, can not be compared with the combat and operational capabilities of the Turkish army.
Moreover, in many cases earlier, the Syrian army was successful in full air supremacy, which was provided by the Russian Aerospace Forces. In other words, the Syrian army today is far from the weight category to enter into an open armed confrontation with the Turkish army and in the equal battle to defend the territorial integrity of their country. Both Ankara and Damascus are aware of this rather sober account.
As for the United States, they are currently getting involved in any large-scale armed conflict in northern Syria absolutely not at hand.
This is primarily due to large-scale domestic political problems. In addition, the military presence of the US armed forces in the region (with the possible exception of the Air Force and partly the Navy) is purely symbolic.
The complete absurdity of the situation for Washington, in this case, lies in the fact that supporting the Kurds, the United States will be forced to somehow enter into armed conflict with the NATO member state.
Nevertheless, in terms of maintaining the military-political face, the United States will still have to provide some kind of assistance to the Kurdish formations. It is possible that there will be supplies of weapons, ammunition, material and technical means, assistance was provided in the repair of military equipment. However, the scale of US aid is unlikely to significantly affect the course and outcome of the Turkish-Kurdish conflict.
EU countries regarding the events in northeast Syria are likely to limit themselves to purely political statements.
Iran, presumably, will completely remain aloof from this conflict and is unlikely to take an active part in the confrontation between the Kurds and the Turkish army.
Iraq, which currently has more than enough of its internal problems, will not take any part in the events. Is that in the north-east of Syria will arrive a certain number of volunteers from Iraqi Kurdistan?
Thus, most likely, the actions of the Turkish Armed Forces to create a 32-km "security zone" along the borders of the north-east of Syria will take place approximately according to the scenario of the operation "Olive Branch" that ended in March 2018.
Then, during the hostilities, the Turkish army stormed the city of Afrin, knocking out the Kurdish "National Self-Defense Forces" from there. In March, only a small enclave to the northeast of the city of Aleppo remained, controlled from three sides by pro-Turkish militants, and from the south by government forces. In addition to statements of a political nature, the world community did not demonstrate any other actions at that time.
So this time there is a reason to believe that the Third World War will not begin due to another operation of the Turkish Armed Forces. And the outcome of the next Kurdish-Turkish conflict is largely predetermined due to the overwhelming superiority of the Turkish army in heavy weapons and its complete air supremacy.
An analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of both the Turkish army and the Kurdish forces, as well as the correspondence of the previously stated tactical and technical characteristics of various types of weapons and military equipment, will be of certain interest to observers during this conflict. For example, the Leopard main battle tanks were expected to be much larger in battles than they were able to display during previous combat operations. In a number of armed clashes, the individual training of some Turkish military personnel and their perseverance in achieving assigned combat missions were lower than declared. It remains only to observe how and in what time frame the Turkish army will achieve the goals set by the country's leadership.








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